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1998 Atlantic hurricane season
The 1998 Atlantic hurricane season featured the highest number of storm-related fatalities in over 200 years. It officially began on June 1 and ended on November 30, dates which conventionally delimit the period during which most tropical cyclones form in the Atlantic Ocean.〔 The first tropical cyclone, Tropical Storm Alex, developed on July 27, and the season's final storm, Hurricane Nicole, became extratropical on December 1. The strongest storm, Mitch, was tied with Hurricane Dean for the seventh most intense Atlantic hurricane ever recorded. Mitch is also the second deadliest Atlantic hurricane in recorded history. The system dropped tremendous amounts of rainfall in Central America, causing 19,000 confirmed deaths and at least $6.2 billion (1998 USD) in damage. The season was the first to feature a Category 5 hurricane on the Saffir–Simpson hurricane wind scale since Hurricane Andrew in the 1992 season.
Several storms made landfall or directly affected land. Hurricane Bonnie made landfall in southeastern North Carolina as a Category 2 hurricane in late August, killing five people and causing about $1 billion in damage. Hurricane Earl caused $79 million in damage and three deaths after making landfall in Florida as a Category 1 hurricane. The two deadliest and destructive hurricanes of the season, Hurricane Georges and Mitch, caused $5.9 billion in damage and $6.2 billion in damage, respectively. Hurricane Georges was an intense Category 4 hurricane that moved through many of the Caribbean Islands, causing significant damage before making landfall near Biloxi, Mississippi. Hurricane Mitch was a very powerful and destructive late-season hurricane that affected much of Central America before making landfall in Florida as a tropical storm. The significant amount of rainfall that Mitch produced across Central America caused significant damage and killed at least 11,000 people, making the system the second deadliest hurricane in recorded history, behind only the Great Hurricane of 1780.
==Season outlooks==
In advance of, and during, each hurricane season, several forecasts of hurricane activity are issued by national meteorological services, scientific agencies, and noted hurricane experts. These include forecasters from the United States National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)'s National Hurricane and Climate Prediction Center's, William M. Gray and his associates at Colorado State University (CSU), as well as Weather Research Center (WRC). The forecasts include weekly and monthly changes in significant factors that help determine the number of tropical storms, hurricanes, and major hurricanes within a particular year. As stated by NOAA and CSU, an average Atlantic hurricane season between 1981–2010 contains roughly 12 tropical storms, 6 hurricanes, 3 major hurricanes, and an Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) Index of 66–103 units.〔 NOAA typically categorizes a season as either above-average, average, of below-average based on the cumulative ACE Index; however, the number of tropical storms, hurricanes, and major hurricanes within a hurricane season is considered occasionally as well.
CSU began issuing outlooks in December 1997 and initially predicted 9 named storms, 5 hurricanes, and 2 major hurricanes would occur in the upcoming season. Later, in April 1998, CSU released a forecast calling for 10 named storms, 6 hurricanes, and 2 major hurricane. The predictions by CSU in June and August 1998 remained the same as the forecast in April.〔 Additionally, forecasters at CSU predicted that the El Niño event that began in 1997 would dissipate either before or shortly after the 1998 season began. The WRC predicted 8 named storms and 5 hurricanes in early 1998, but did not include a forecast for the number of major hurricanes.〔
抄文引用元・出典: フリー百科事典『 ウィキペディア（Wikipedia）』
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